Freddie Dunning-Kruger

The cognitive bias of illusory superiority. David Dunning and Justin (obviously) Kruger have explored this psychological phenomenon, which at its core is about the difficulties inherent in holding an accurate view of one’s own skills/knowledge/quality of work, and their findings have been tidily encapsulated as the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Put too simply, people who are ignorant in a particular area have no tools for understanding how ignorant they are, and consequently they tend to be overconfident in their own abilities. As they develop greater awareness, their confidence declines, despite growing competence. Then, further along the spectrum, if they continue to learn and improve, there is a flexion point, and their confidence begins to grow again, but this time in alignment with their actual competence.

People who are bad don’t know how bad they are. People who find something easy assume it is for everyone else.

In a shock to nobody who has been paying attention, people from “higher" social classes are prone to be more overconfident than others.

The first time I wrote a song, I was sure it was great. This carried on for a fair few songs. Then I was certain the songs I wrote weren’t any good, or at least they were just okay. The songs that I write now, I don’t worry about trying to assess their quality, as it doesn’t matter what I think. So I just focus on trying to make each individual song the best version of itself that it can be.

In practicing and performing, I am so mentally engaged with playing and singing that there is no cognitive space for making determinations about quality. It feels good, or it doesn’t.

The band has been in the studio recording a song. It isn’t finished yet, soundwise, but hearing it as it is now was a disorienting experience. Yes, I sang and played in the recording, but to just listen to it was something completely different.

We don’t have a big following, and the idea that we could ever do this full-time is miles away. Yet when I heard it, it sounded like a real, proper band. Not just decent, but really really good. Yes, it’s all subjective anyway, and even if it is/we are actually great, that doesn’t in and of itself mean anything. But I/we can be genuinely proud of what we’re making and we’ll keep trying to improve, as we always do.

The mystery for me then is whether I have passed the flexion point, or am still in the overconfident halo of my own ignorance. I do love a good mystery.